The Budget Cut Curve
Justin Bathon on Monday, August 17, 2009 at 1:48PM I loved this graphic from a story on Stateline.org on state budget deficits:
National Conference of State Legislators via Stateline.orgWhat is really interesting is their curve projections in that the curve of this recession is steeper, both higher and more narrow. Looking at 2012, from their projections, we are back at very little deficit in state governments. Projections are always suspect, but it does strike me as overly optimistic given that the revenue being generated right now is what is going to largely account for those budgets because of the taxing cycles.
If you look at the little note in the bottom corner, the "2011 and 2012 estimates are expected to grow" language is super interesting. The story finds that many states are plugging their budget holes for this year, like Kentucky, by using a lot of Stimulus money. If legislators are seeing rosy budget projections like these from groups like Stateline and NCSL, they may have been more likely to plug in Stimulus money rather than taking the harder step of actually cutting programs on the rationale that we are looking at a quicker recovery.
h/t Eduflack
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